Thursday, July 21, 2005
ASHES 2005
Well, today is the first day of the latest Battle for The Ashes. Who's going to win - the Pedro45 view??? The media are saying players are the most important factors, and to a certain extent I agree, but they are missing two further areas - the toss, and the weather.
England have had a real raw deal with the toss in tests over the last ten-fifteen years. Gooch, Atherton, Stewart, Hussain all seemed to call wrong away from home, and toss badly in home series - check the averages!
If England are to win this series, it is imperative that they win at least the majority of tosses. If the Aussies bat first in good weather on good pitches, then England will have a whole heap of trouble trying to match first innings scores and save the game.
Second, the weather. Today is lovely (and a great day for batting it seems), but other upcoming days will not be so - we need to have the luck when it comes to batting in cloudless skies and bowling when it's overcast if we are to win. We may also well need the rain to come along on those occasions when we are under the cosh - allowing us to re-group, focus, and do media interviews!
Players to watch out for are pretty obvious - the English bowlers look a good bunch (pace, swing, seam, accuracy), but can they get the Aussie batters out twice in a match? The Aussie bowlers have the better confidence so can the English batters survive the new ball, and then Warne's persistence?
Realistic prediction time:
Score - 3-0 Australia (sorry...)
Top runs scorer - Aus - Martyn
Top runs scorer - Eng - Jones G
Top wicket taker - Aus - Lee
Top wicket taker - Eng - Harmison
England have had a real raw deal with the toss in tests over the last ten-fifteen years. Gooch, Atherton, Stewart, Hussain all seemed to call wrong away from home, and toss badly in home series - check the averages!
If England are to win this series, it is imperative that they win at least the majority of tosses. If the Aussies bat first in good weather on good pitches, then England will have a whole heap of trouble trying to match first innings scores and save the game.
Second, the weather. Today is lovely (and a great day for batting it seems), but other upcoming days will not be so - we need to have the luck when it comes to batting in cloudless skies and bowling when it's overcast if we are to win. We may also well need the rain to come along on those occasions when we are under the cosh - allowing us to re-group, focus, and do media interviews!
Players to watch out for are pretty obvious - the English bowlers look a good bunch (pace, swing, seam, accuracy), but can they get the Aussie batters out twice in a match? The Aussie bowlers have the better confidence so can the English batters survive the new ball, and then Warne's persistence?
Realistic prediction time:
Score - 3-0 Australia (sorry...)
Top runs scorer - Aus - Martyn
Top runs scorer - Eng - Jones G
Top wicket taker - Aus - Lee
Top wicket taker - Eng - Harmison
Heart ruling head time, the best scenario is to win the toss this morning, bat till 11.30 on Saturday, then for it to get cloudy (but dry) and bowl the convicts out twice over the next eight sessions (69 years of hurt...). Then it's needs to rain incessantly for the next two months. There. Done deal! Ashes coming home and all that!
